Austin Real Estate Weekly Market Update – September 11, 2025

by: Dan Price, Broker at Team Price Real Estate
Austin's leading data analysis brokerage, where data drives exceptional service
Published on: Thursday, September 11, 2025 at 05:41 am

The Austin housing market is showing signs of steadier footing as we move deeper into September 2025. Active listings across both the Austin-Area MLS and the City of Austin continue to climb compared to last year, with Months of Inventory also ticking higher—giving buyers more options and leverage than they’ve had in several seasons. At the same time, prices are essentially flat, with only minor shifts in both average and median sold values year over year. While still far below the frenzied peak of 2022, today’s market reflects a recalibration toward balance: supply is building, demand remains measured, and Austin real estate is settling into a healthier rhythm that offers opportunity for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. 

Inventory Growth and Market Balance

Active residential listings across the Austin-Area MLS climbed to 16,954 in September 2025, a 9.3 percent increase from 15,514 one year ago. Months of Inventory expanded from 5.28 to 5.82, marking a 10.2 percent rise and confirming that supply is building faster than demand. Within the City of Austin, the increase was slightly smaller but still notable. Active listings rose 7.9 percent year over year, moving from 4,641 to 5,006, while Months of Inventory increased from 5.52 to 5.86, a 6.3 percent gain. Together, these figures highlight a market where buyers have more choice, sellers face more competition, and absorption is slower than last year.

Pricing Stability Across the MLS
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Price trends across the Austin-Area MLS show little movement, underscoring a market in search of stability. The average list price rose just 0.6 percent year over year, from $574,463 to $577,955, while the median list price slipped 1.1 percent to $435,000. Closed sales showed a similar pattern, with the average sold price up only 0.5 percent to $556,787, while the median sold price dipped 0.6 percent to $425,000. These figures confirm that while inventory is growing, buyers and sellers are finding common ground at price levels that are largely flat compared to a year ago.

Pricing Trends in the City of Austin
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Inside the City of Austin, prices showed slightly more resilience than the regional market. The average list price increased 1.7 percent to $782,292, while the median list price held steady at $600,000. Closed sales reflected a modest upward trend, with the average sold price advancing 1.8 percent to $751,546 and the median sold price improving 0.6 percent to $590,000. While growth remains minimal, these results suggest that demand in Austin’s urban core is supporting stronger price stability compared to the broader metro.

Negotiation and Buyer Leverage
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Negotiation remains a consistent feature of the Austin housing market. So far this month, 69.26 percent of closed sales have transacted below list price, up from 65.95 percent last month. The share of homes selling at list price dropped to 18.33 percent, while 12.41 percent of homes closed above asking, nearly unchanged from August but down from 13.24 percent in July 2024. The average sold-to-list price ratio now stands at 96.81 percent, underscoring that most buyers are still negotiating discounts relative to asking prices.

Regional and ZIP Code Variations
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Conditions continue to vary across Central Texas. Of the 30 tracked cities, 14 (47 percent) posted month-over-month price increases, while 16 (53 percent) recorded declines. On a year-over-year basis, 12 cities (40 percent) saw gains and 18 (60 percent) saw losses. None of the 30 tracked cities are above their 12-month peak levels.

At the ZIP code level, 27 out of 75 tracked areas (36 percent) reported month-over-month increases, while 45 (60 percent) saw declines. On a year-over-year basis, 24 ZIP codes (32 percent) posted gains, while 51 (68 percent) recorded losses. Only one ZIP code in the region has exceeded its 12-month peak, leaving 74 still below. These figures show that recovery is inconsistent and highly localized, with certain areas stabilizing faster than others.

Prices Relative to Peak Levels
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Both the Austin-Area MLS and the City of Austin remain well below their peak valuations from 2022 and 2023. Across the MLS, the average list price is down 11.8 percent from its March 2023 high, while the median list price has fallen 12.7 percent from May 2022. The average sold price is 17.7 percent below May 2022 levels, and the median sold price is down 22.9 percent. On a price-per-square-foot basis, values remain 22 to 24 percent lower than their peak.

In the City of Austin, declines are also evident. The average sold price is 14.6 percent below its May 2022 peak, and the median sold price is down 18.0 percent. Price-per-square-foot metrics in Austin are off by 22 to 26 percent compared to their highs. Even as list prices in the city show some stability, sold values remain meaningfully lower than peak conditions.

Market Outlook
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The Austin housing market in mid-September 2025 reflects a period of balance rather than extremes. Inventory continues to expand, absorption has slowed, and buyers are negotiating successfully. Prices remain stable year over year, with the City of Austin showing slightly more strength than the regional MLS, but both remain well below their peak valuations. For buyers, this environment offers more choices and opportunities to secure discounts. For sellers, success hinges on accurate pricing and realistic expectations. For investors, the takeaway is clear: the market has shifted from the volatility of the past into a steadier phase, where long-term positioning and careful deal analysis are the keys to success.​

Austin Housing Market Questions People are Asking:

1. Is now a good time to buy in Austin?​

Yes, for many buyers this is one of the most balanced markets Austin has seen in years, but the answer depends on what you are buying and how you approach it. Active listings are up more than nine percent compared to last year, and Months of Inventory has risen from 5.28 to 5.82, giving buyers more leverage and more options than they have had in recent years. Prices are holding steady, with average and median sold values showing little movement either way. That means buyers are less likely to face bidding wars or runaway premiums like in 2021 and 2022. However, interest rates and carrying costs still play a major role in affordability, so buyers should consider their monthly payment as much as the purchase price. For investors, the upside is not as explosive as in past cycles, but the reduced risk and greater negotiation power make this a market where patient, selective buyers can find long-term value.
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2. Are home prices going to fall sharply in Austin (or is a crash coming)?

A sharp crash in Austin home prices appears unlikely given the current data. While inventory is rising, the increase is steady rather than overwhelming, and demand has not collapsed. Population growth, job creation, and migration into the Austin area continue to provide a foundation for housing demand. Prices have already corrected from their peak levels in 2022 and 2023, with many measures showing declines of 15 to 20 percent from the highs. This means much of the adjustment has already taken place. Unless mortgage rates surge dramatically higher or the broader economy weakens sharply, the market is more likely to continue its path of slow, steady recalibration rather than sudden declines. In short, Austin real estate today looks more like a market normalizing to fundamentals rather than one poised for a crash.
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3. For sellers: what should I do to get a good price in this market?

Sellers in today’s market must be realistic, strategic, and prepared. With nearly seventy percent of homes closing below list price, buyers expect discounts and are willing to negotiate. Overpricing a listing at the outset usually results in more time on the market, eventual price reductions, and often a lower final sales price than if the home had been priced appropriately from the start. Presentation is also critical, as buyers have more choices and will gravitate toward homes that are clean, staged, and move-in ready. Sellers who respond quickly to inquiries, remain flexible on showings, and are open to negotiating terms are more likely to secure solid offers. Local conditions matter greatly, so monitoring comparable sales in your neighborhood is essential to setting and maintaining the right strategy. In a balanced market, success is less about timing a hot cycle and more about accurate pricing and professional preparation.
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4. What are investors seeing in this market — is it still a strong buy?

Investors are approaching Austin with more caution than in recent years, but opportunity remains for those who focus on fundamentals. The days of rapid appreciation driving returns are on hold, which means cash flow, rental stability, and neighborhood selection are far more important. Investors are evaluating properties based on the balance of acquisition cost, rental income potential, and long-term positioning in growth corridors. Financing costs and property taxes weigh heavily on profitability, making it critical to underwrite conservatively. Still, Austin continues to attract population and business expansion, and that steady demand provides a level of insulation compared to weaker markets. For investors, the goal now is not chasing short-term appreciation but identifying properties that perform under today’s conditions while holding the potential to grow in value as the market cycles forward.
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5. How does this market shift affect first-time homebuyers or people trading up?

For first-time buyers and those looking to move up, today’s Austin housing market presents both challenges and opportunities. Affordability is still tight, particularly at the entry-level where demand remains strong, but higher inventory means there are more options to choose from and less competition per listing. First-time buyers benefit from being able to negotiate and from not having to compromise as heavily on features or location, which was often the case during the peak. For trade-up buyers, equity gains from earlier purchases can help offset higher borrowing costs, making it possible to move into larger homes or more desirable neighborhoods that may have been out of reach a few years ago. While the path to ownership still requires careful planning, today’s balanced market gives both groups more breathing room, more negotiating power, and the chance to secure a property without the frenzy that defined past cycles.